Evaluation of Climate Variability Performances using Statistical Climate Models

Uncertainty of the climates nowadays bring the crucial calamities problems especially at unexpected areas and in anytime. Thus, the projection of climate variability becomes significant information especially in the designing, planning and managing of water resources and hydrological systems. Numer...

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Main Authors:	Nurul Nadrah Aqilah, Tukimat, Ahmad Saifuddin, Othman, Saffuan, Wan Ahmad, Khairunisa, Muthusamy
Format:	Article
Language:	English
Published:	Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia 2018
Subjects:	TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
Online Access:	http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/23960/ http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/23960/ http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/23960/ http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/23960/1/Evaluation%20of%20Climate%20Variability%20Performances.pdf

id	ump-23960
recordtype	eprints
spelling	ump-239602019-01-25T02:32:32Z http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/23960/ Evaluation of Climate Variability Performances using Statistical Climate Models Nurul Nadrah Aqilah, Tukimat Ahmad Saifuddin, Othman Saffuan, Wan Ahmad Khairunisa, Muthusamy TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) Uncertainty of the climates nowadays bring the crucial calamities problems especially at unexpected areas and in anytime. Thus, the projection of climate variability becomes significant information especially in the designing, planning and managing of water resources and hydrological systems. Numerous climate models with varies methods and purposes have been developed to generate the local weather scenarios with considered the greenhouse gasses (GHGs) effect provided by General Circulation Models (GCMs). However, the accuracy and suitability of each climate models are depending on the atmospheric characters’ selection and the variables consideration to form the statistical equation of local-global weather relationship. In this study, there are two well-known statistical climate models were considered; Lars- WG and SDSM models represent for the regression and weather typing methods, respectively. The main aim was to evaluate the performances among these climate models suit for the Pahang climate variability for the upcoming year ∆2050. The findings proved the Lars-WG as a reliable climate modelling with undemanding data sources and use simpler analysis method compared to the SDSM. It is able to produce better rainfall simulated results with lesser % MAE and higher R value close to 1.0. However, the SDSM lead in the temperature simulation with considered the most influenced meteorological parameters in the analysis. In year ∆2050, the temperature is expected to rise achieving 35°C. The rainfall projection results provided by these models are not consistent whereby it is expecting to increase 2.6% by SDSM and reduce 1.0% by Lars-WG from the historical trend and concentrated on Nov. Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia 2018 Article PeerReviewed pdf en http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/23960/1/Evaluation%20of%20Climate%20Variability%20Performances.pdf Nurul Nadrah Aqilah, Tukimat and Ahmad Saifuddin, Othman and Saffuan, Wan Ahmad and Khairunisa, Muthusamy (2018) Evaluation of Climate Variability Performances using Statistical Climate Models. Sains Malaysiana, 47 (1). pp. 77-84. ISSN 0126-6039 http://dx.doi.org/10.17576/jsm-2018-4701-09 http://dx.doi.org/10.17576/jsm-2018-4701-09
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Local University
institution	Universiti Malaysia Pahang
building	UMP Institutional Repository
collection	Online Access
language	English
topic	TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
spellingShingle	TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) Nurul Nadrah Aqilah, Tukimat Ahmad Saifuddin, Othman Saffuan, Wan Ahmad Khairunisa, Muthusamy Evaluation of Climate Variability Performances using Statistical Climate Models
description	Uncertainty of the climates nowadays bring the crucial calamities problems especially at unexpected areas and in anytime. Thus, the projection of climate variability becomes significant information especially in the designing, planning and managing of water resources and hydrological systems. Numerous climate models with varies methods and purposes have been developed to generate the local weather scenarios with considered the greenhouse gasses (GHGs) effect provided by General Circulation Models (GCMs). However, the accuracy and suitability of each climate models are depending on the atmospheric characters’ selection and the variables consideration to form the statistical equation of local-global weather relationship. In this study, there are two well-known statistical climate models were considered; Lars- WG and SDSM models represent for the regression and weather typing methods, respectively. The main aim was to evaluate the performances among these climate models suit for the Pahang climate variability for the upcoming year ∆2050. The findings proved the Lars-WG as a reliable climate modelling with undemanding data sources and use simpler analysis method compared to the SDSM. It is able to produce better rainfall simulated results with lesser % MAE and higher R value close to 1.0. However, the SDSM lead in the temperature simulation with considered the most influenced meteorological parameters in the analysis. In year ∆2050, the temperature is expected to rise achieving 35°C. The rainfall projection results provided by these models are not consistent whereby it is expecting to increase 2.6% by SDSM and reduce 1.0% by Lars-WG from the historical trend and concentrated on Nov.
format	Article
author	Nurul Nadrah Aqilah, Tukimat Ahmad Saifuddin, Othman Saffuan, Wan Ahmad Khairunisa, Muthusamy
author_facet	Nurul Nadrah Aqilah, Tukimat Ahmad Saifuddin, Othman Saffuan, Wan Ahmad Khairunisa, Muthusamy
author_sort	Nurul Nadrah Aqilah, Tukimat
title	Evaluation of Climate Variability Performances using Statistical Climate Models
title_short	Evaluation of Climate Variability Performances using Statistical Climate Models
title_full	Evaluation of Climate Variability Performances using Statistical Climate Models
title_fullStr	Evaluation of Climate Variability Performances using Statistical Climate Models
title_full_unstemmed	Evaluation of Climate Variability Performances using Statistical Climate Models
title_sort	evaluation of climate variability performances using statistical climate models
publisher	Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia
publishDate	2018
url	http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/23960/ http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/23960/ http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/23960/ http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/23960/1/Evaluation%20of%20Climate%20Variability%20Performances.pdf
first_indexed	2023-09-18T22:36:06Z
last_indexed	2023-09-18T22:36:06Z
_version_	1777416605500702720

Evaluation of Climate Variability Performances using Statistical Climate Models

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