Long-term Electricity Forecasting: A System Dynamics Approach
Electricity has become an important source of energy for human development. Forecasting electricity demand plays a pivotal role in electricity planning. It provides a mechanism to have a balance between supply and demand. A system dynamics model is developed using population and per capita consum...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Conference or Workshop Item |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2012
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/2462/ http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/2462/1/ICEEB_Conf_final_.pdf |
| Summary: | Electricity has become an important source of energy for human development. Forecasting electricity demand plays a pivotal role in electricity planning. It provides a mechanism to have a balance between supply and
demand. A system dynamics model is developed using population and per capita consumption of electricity to forecast electricity demand for coming 10 years. Malaysia is used as a case study. It is found that that by using two variables, a fairly accurate forecast can be obtained. The simulation model estimates that at the current rate of consumption and population growth there will be a need of 192.5trillionwatt-hour of electric energy in year 2021. |
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