Strategic Forecasting of Electricity Demand Using System Dynamics Approach

Electricity has become an important source of energy in human society. The enormous use of electricity necessitates a mechanism to predict the future demand. Forecasting models provide that mechanism. They facilitate decision makers in keeping a balance between supply and demand, thus strategically...

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Main Authors:	Salman Ahmad, Akhwanzada, Razman, Mat Tahar
Format:	Article
Language:	English English
Published:	IACSIT Press 2012
Subjects:	TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering
Online Access:	http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/6808/ http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/6808/ http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/6808/1/Strategic_forecasting_of_electricity_demand_using_system_dynamics_approach.pdf http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/6808/4/ftech-2012-razman-strategic%20forecasting%20of%20electricity%20demand%20using%20system.pdf

id	ump-6808
recordtype	eprints
spelling	ump-68082016-05-05T07:26:19Z http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/6808/ Strategic Forecasting of Electricity Demand Using System Dynamics Approach Salman Ahmad, Akhwanzada Razman, Mat Tahar TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering Electricity has become an important source of energy in human society. The enormous use of electricity necessitates a mechanism to predict the future demand. Forecasting models provide that mechanism. They facilitate decision makers in keeping a balance between supply and demand, thus strategically managing the supply system A simulation based on system dynamics methodology is developed for demand forecasting. The variables used are population and per capita consumption of electricity to forecast electricity demand. The forecasting horizon of the model is 11 years from 2011 to 2022. Malaysia is used as a case study. The simulation model estimates that at the current rate of consumption and population growth there will be a need of 151.05 terawatt-hour of electric energy in year 2022. It is found that that by using simulation, a fairly accurate forecast can be obtained. IACSIT Press 2012-08 Article PeerReviewed application/pdf en http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/6808/1/Strategic_forecasting_of_electricity_demand_using_system_dynamics_approach.pdf application/pdf en http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/6808/4/ftech-2012-razman-strategic%20forecasting%20of%20electricity%20demand%20using%20system.pdf Salman Ahmad, Akhwanzada and Razman, Mat Tahar (2012) Strategic Forecasting of Electricity Demand Using System Dynamics Approach. International Journal of Environmental Science and Development, 3 (4). pp. 328-333. ISSN 2010-0264 http://www.ijesd.org/papers/241-B063.pdf
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Local University
institution	Universiti Malaysia Pahang
building	UMP Institutional Repository
collection	Online Access
language	English English
topic	TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering
spellingShingle	TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering Salman Ahmad, Akhwanzada Razman, Mat Tahar Strategic Forecasting of Electricity Demand Using System Dynamics Approach
description	Electricity has become an important source of energy in human society. The enormous use of electricity necessitates a mechanism to predict the future demand. Forecasting models provide that mechanism. They facilitate decision makers in keeping a balance between supply and demand, thus strategically managing the supply system A simulation based on system dynamics methodology is developed for demand forecasting. The variables used are population and per capita consumption of electricity to forecast electricity demand. The forecasting horizon of the model is 11 years from 2011 to 2022. Malaysia is used as a case study. The simulation model estimates that at the current rate of consumption and population growth there will be a need of 151.05 terawatt-hour of electric energy in year 2022. It is found that that by using simulation, a fairly accurate forecast can be obtained.
format	Article
author	Salman Ahmad, Akhwanzada Razman, Mat Tahar
author_facet	Salman Ahmad, Akhwanzada Razman, Mat Tahar
author_sort	Salman Ahmad, Akhwanzada
title	Strategic Forecasting of Electricity Demand Using System Dynamics Approach
title_short	Strategic Forecasting of Electricity Demand Using System Dynamics Approach
title_full	Strategic Forecasting of Electricity Demand Using System Dynamics Approach
title_fullStr	Strategic Forecasting of Electricity Demand Using System Dynamics Approach
title_full_unstemmed	Strategic Forecasting of Electricity Demand Using System Dynamics Approach
title_sort	strategic forecasting of electricity demand using system dynamics approach
publisher	IACSIT Press
publishDate	2012
url	http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/6808/ http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/6808/ http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/6808/1/Strategic_forecasting_of_electricity_demand_using_system_dynamics_approach.pdf http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/6808/4/ftech-2012-razman-strategic%20forecasting%20of%20electricity%20demand%20using%20system.pdf
first_indexed	2023-09-18T22:02:54Z
last_indexed	2023-09-18T22:02:54Z
_version_	1777414517346533376

Strategic Forecasting of Electricity Demand Using System Dynamics Approach

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