Road Projects Cost Benefit Analysis : Scenario Analysis of the Effect of Varying Inputs
Six projects from six countries were selected as the cases for detailed analysis in this study. They are from Argentina, Botswana, India, Kenya, Lao PDR and Paraguay, representing a wide range of geographical distribution. Also, the extent of the e...
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| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English en_US |
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2017
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/259161468327409408/Road-projects-cost-benefit-analysis-scenario-analysis-of-the-effect-of-varying-inputs http://hdl.handle.net/10986/27814 |
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okr-10986-27814 |
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| recordtype |
oai_dc |
| repository_type |
Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
| building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English en_US |
| topic |
ABBREVIATIONS ACCIDENT ACCIDENT COSTS ANALYSIS PERIOD ASPHALT ASPHALT PAVEMENT AVERAGE SPEEDS AVERAGE TRAFFIC GROWTH BYPASSES CARGO CARRIAGEWAY CIVIL WORKS CLASSIFICATION CONCRETE CONCRETE PAVEMENT CONCRETE PAVEMENTS CONTENTS CORRIDOR CORRIDOR TRANSPORT CORRIDOR TRANSPORT IMPROVEMENT CORRIDOR TRANSPORT IMPROVEMENT PROJECT COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS CRACKING DESCRIPTION DIESEL DOCUMENTS FLEXIBLE PAVEMENTS FOG FRAMEWORK FUEL FUEL PRICE FUEL PRICES GENERATED TRAFFIC GOAL GRADING GRAVEL GRAVEL RESURFACING HEADING HIGHWAY HIGHWAY IMPROVEMENT HIGHWAY IMPROVEMENT PROJECT INDICES INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN INTERNATIONAL ROUGHNESS INDEX LANE ROAD LANES LENGTH OF ROAD LOADING MAINTENANCE LABOR NET PRESENT VALUE NORMAL TRAFFIC OVERLAY PASSENGER PASSENGER WORKING TIME PASSENGERS PAVED ROADS PAVEMENT CONDITION PAVEMENT CONSTRUCTION PAVEMENT WIDTH PERIODIC MAINTENANCE POTHOLES RANGE REDUCTION IN TRAFFIC REPAIR ROAD ROAD CONDITIONS ROAD DETERIORATION ROAD INFRASTRUCTURE ROAD INVESTMENT ROAD INVESTMENTS ROAD MAINTENANCE ROAD MANAGEMENT ROAD NETWORK ROAD PROJECTS ROAD REHABILITATION ROAD SECTOR ROAD USER ROAD USER COSTS ROADS ROADWAY ROUGHNESS ROUTINE MAINTENANCE SIGNS SPEED STATE HIGHWAY STATE HIGHWAY IMPROVEMENT STRENGTH TRAFFIC TRAFFIC DEMAND TRAFFIC GROWTH TRAFFIC REDUCTION TRAFFIC VOLUME TRAFFIC VOLUMES TRANSPORT TRANSPORT IMPROVEMENT TRANSPORT RESEARCH TRANSPORT SECTOR TRAVEL TIME TRUE UNPAVED ROADS VALUE OF TIME VEHICLE VEHICLE FLEET VEHICLE OPERATING VEHICLE OPERATING COST VEHICLE OPERATION VEHICLE PRICE VEHICLE SPEEDS VEHICLE TYPES VEHICLES WORKING VALUE |
| spellingShingle |
ABBREVIATIONS ACCIDENT ACCIDENT COSTS ANALYSIS PERIOD ASPHALT ASPHALT PAVEMENT AVERAGE SPEEDS AVERAGE TRAFFIC GROWTH BYPASSES CARGO CARRIAGEWAY CIVIL WORKS CLASSIFICATION CONCRETE CONCRETE PAVEMENT CONCRETE PAVEMENTS CONTENTS CORRIDOR CORRIDOR TRANSPORT CORRIDOR TRANSPORT IMPROVEMENT CORRIDOR TRANSPORT IMPROVEMENT PROJECT COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS CRACKING DESCRIPTION DIESEL DOCUMENTS FLEXIBLE PAVEMENTS FOG FRAMEWORK FUEL FUEL PRICE FUEL PRICES GENERATED TRAFFIC GOAL GRADING GRAVEL GRAVEL RESURFACING HEADING HIGHWAY HIGHWAY IMPROVEMENT HIGHWAY IMPROVEMENT PROJECT INDICES INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN INTERNATIONAL ROUGHNESS INDEX LANE ROAD LANES LENGTH OF ROAD LOADING MAINTENANCE LABOR NET PRESENT VALUE NORMAL TRAFFIC OVERLAY PASSENGER PASSENGER WORKING TIME PASSENGERS PAVED ROADS PAVEMENT CONDITION PAVEMENT CONSTRUCTION PAVEMENT WIDTH PERIODIC MAINTENANCE POTHOLES RANGE REDUCTION IN TRAFFIC REPAIR ROAD ROAD CONDITIONS ROAD DETERIORATION ROAD INFRASTRUCTURE ROAD INVESTMENT ROAD INVESTMENTS ROAD MAINTENANCE ROAD MANAGEMENT ROAD NETWORK ROAD PROJECTS ROAD REHABILITATION ROAD SECTOR ROAD USER ROAD USER COSTS ROADS ROADWAY ROUGHNESS ROUTINE MAINTENANCE SIGNS SPEED STATE HIGHWAY STATE HIGHWAY IMPROVEMENT STRENGTH TRAFFIC TRAFFIC DEMAND TRAFFIC GROWTH TRAFFIC REDUCTION TRAFFIC VOLUME TRAFFIC VOLUMES TRANSPORT TRANSPORT IMPROVEMENT TRANSPORT RESEARCH TRANSPORT SECTOR TRAVEL TIME TRUE UNPAVED ROADS VALUE OF TIME VEHICLE VEHICLE FLEET VEHICLE OPERATING VEHICLE OPERATING COST VEHICLE OPERATION VEHICLE PRICE VEHICLE SPEEDS VEHICLE TYPES VEHICLES WORKING VALUE Tsunokawa, Koji Road Projects Cost Benefit Analysis : Scenario Analysis of the Effect of Varying Inputs |
| geographic_facet |
Argentina Botswana India Kenya Lao People's Democratic Republic Paraguay |
| description |
Six projects from six countries were
selected as the cases for detailed analysis in this study.
They are from Argentina, Botswana, India, Kenya, Lao PDR and
Paraguay, representing a wide range of geographical
distribution. Also, the extent of the effect of economic
downturn which these countries experienced ranges a wide
variety. In an economic downturn, uncertainties increase
with many inputs of road projects Cost Benefit Analysis
(CBA), including fuel prices, levels of demand, investment
costs and maintenance availability. Also, important
parameters of project evaluation such as discount rate and
value of time need to be more carefully scrutinized.
Therefore, it is very important for the developing countries
to have good understanding about the effects of the
variability of these inputs/parameters on project viability
and the ranking of road investments. It is a role of the
developing agencies to conduct a systematic analysis of
these effects and disseminate the findings and knowledge
obtained. The objective of the study is to obtain insights
regarding the effects of varying inputs and parameters on
the viability of road projects through case studies using
Highway Development and Management Model (HDM-4), thereby to
facilitate the formulation and implementation of road
projects that increase the welfare of the society under the
environment of increased uncertainty in an economic
downturn. The results of the study will be summarized in a
transport note as a discrete knowledge product and
disseminated among various stakeholders including developing
agencies staff, government officials and donor communities.
To assess the effects of increased uncertainty with inputs
of cost benefit analysis on the economic viability of road
projects, this study first investigated the range of
variability of the inputs for the six selected
projects/countries. It was found that the variability ranges
differ by country reflecting the degree of decrease in
transport demand and relative change in factor prices due to
economic downturn. |
| format |
Working Paper |
| author |
Tsunokawa, Koji |
| author_facet |
Tsunokawa, Koji |
| author_sort |
Tsunokawa, Koji |
| title |
Road Projects Cost Benefit Analysis : Scenario Analysis of the Effect of Varying Inputs |
| title_short |
Road Projects Cost Benefit Analysis : Scenario Analysis of the Effect of Varying Inputs |
| title_full |
Road Projects Cost Benefit Analysis : Scenario Analysis of the Effect of Varying Inputs |
| title_fullStr |
Road Projects Cost Benefit Analysis : Scenario Analysis of the Effect of Varying Inputs |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Road Projects Cost Benefit Analysis : Scenario Analysis of the Effect of Varying Inputs |
| title_sort |
road projects cost benefit analysis : scenario analysis of the effect of varying inputs |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2017 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/259161468327409408/Road-projects-cost-benefit-analysis-scenario-analysis-of-the-effect-of-varying-inputs http://hdl.handle.net/10986/27814 |
| _version_ |
1764465144317870080 |
| spelling |
okr-10986-278142021-04-23T14:04:44Z Road Projects Cost Benefit Analysis : Scenario Analysis of the Effect of Varying Inputs Tsunokawa, Koji ABBREVIATIONS ACCIDENT ACCIDENT COSTS ANALYSIS PERIOD ASPHALT ASPHALT PAVEMENT AVERAGE SPEEDS AVERAGE TRAFFIC GROWTH BYPASSES CARGO CARRIAGEWAY CIVIL WORKS CLASSIFICATION CONCRETE CONCRETE PAVEMENT CONCRETE PAVEMENTS CONTENTS CORRIDOR CORRIDOR TRANSPORT CORRIDOR TRANSPORT IMPROVEMENT CORRIDOR TRANSPORT IMPROVEMENT PROJECT COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS CRACKING DESCRIPTION DIESEL DOCUMENTS FLEXIBLE PAVEMENTS FOG FRAMEWORK FUEL FUEL PRICE FUEL PRICES GENERATED TRAFFIC GOAL GRADING GRAVEL GRAVEL RESURFACING HEADING HIGHWAY HIGHWAY IMPROVEMENT HIGHWAY IMPROVEMENT PROJECT INDICES INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN INTERNATIONAL ROUGHNESS INDEX LANE ROAD LANES LENGTH OF ROAD LOADING MAINTENANCE LABOR NET PRESENT VALUE NORMAL TRAFFIC OVERLAY PASSENGER PASSENGER WORKING TIME PASSENGERS PAVED ROADS PAVEMENT CONDITION PAVEMENT CONSTRUCTION PAVEMENT WIDTH PERIODIC MAINTENANCE POTHOLES RANGE REDUCTION IN TRAFFIC REPAIR ROAD ROAD CONDITIONS ROAD DETERIORATION ROAD INFRASTRUCTURE ROAD INVESTMENT ROAD INVESTMENTS ROAD MAINTENANCE ROAD MANAGEMENT ROAD NETWORK ROAD PROJECTS ROAD REHABILITATION ROAD SECTOR ROAD USER ROAD USER COSTS ROADS ROADWAY ROUGHNESS ROUTINE MAINTENANCE SIGNS SPEED STATE HIGHWAY STATE HIGHWAY IMPROVEMENT STRENGTH TRAFFIC TRAFFIC DEMAND TRAFFIC GROWTH TRAFFIC REDUCTION TRAFFIC VOLUME TRAFFIC VOLUMES TRANSPORT TRANSPORT IMPROVEMENT TRANSPORT RESEARCH TRANSPORT SECTOR TRAVEL TIME TRUE UNPAVED ROADS VALUE OF TIME VEHICLE VEHICLE FLEET VEHICLE OPERATING VEHICLE OPERATING COST VEHICLE OPERATION VEHICLE PRICE VEHICLE SPEEDS VEHICLE TYPES VEHICLES WORKING VALUE Six projects from six countries were selected as the cases for detailed analysis in this study. They are from Argentina, Botswana, India, Kenya, Lao PDR and Paraguay, representing a wide range of geographical distribution. Also, the extent of the effect of economic downturn which these countries experienced ranges a wide variety. In an economic downturn, uncertainties increase with many inputs of road projects Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA), including fuel prices, levels of demand, investment costs and maintenance availability. Also, important parameters of project evaluation such as discount rate and value of time need to be more carefully scrutinized. Therefore, it is very important for the developing countries to have good understanding about the effects of the variability of these inputs/parameters on project viability and the ranking of road investments. It is a role of the developing agencies to conduct a systematic analysis of these effects and disseminate the findings and knowledge obtained. The objective of the study is to obtain insights regarding the effects of varying inputs and parameters on the viability of road projects through case studies using Highway Development and Management Model (HDM-4), thereby to facilitate the formulation and implementation of road projects that increase the welfare of the society under the environment of increased uncertainty in an economic downturn. The results of the study will be summarized in a transport note as a discrete knowledge product and disseminated among various stakeholders including developing agencies staff, government officials and donor communities. To assess the effects of increased uncertainty with inputs of cost benefit analysis on the economic viability of road projects, this study first investigated the range of variability of the inputs for the six selected projects/countries. It was found that the variability ranges differ by country reflecting the degree of decrease in transport demand and relative change in factor prices due to economic downturn. 2017-08-15T14:53:46Z 2017-08-15T14:53:46Z 2010 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/259161468327409408/Road-projects-cost-benefit-analysis-scenario-analysis-of-the-effect-of-varying-inputs http://hdl.handle.net/10986/27814 English en_US CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research :: Working Paper Publications & Research Argentina Botswana India Kenya Lao People's Democratic Republic Paraguay |